Bitwise Asset Management has released a long-term outlook projecting that Bitcoin price could reach $1.3 million per coin by 2035.
Summary
- Bitwise projects Bitcoin could hit $1.3M by 2035, with a $28T market cap.
- Forecast driven by institutional inflows, inflation hedging, and fixed supply.
- Risks remain from regulation and macro shocks, but long-term trajectory is bullish.
In its August capital markets assumptions report, the firm, which manages more than $15 billion in assets, framed this as its base case scenario. The projection translates to an annualized growth rate of 28.3% from today’s level of about $112,000.
If it materializes, Bitcoin’s (BTC) market capitalization would climb to nearly $28 trillion, more than double the current value of the global gold market. Bitwise also outlined alternative paths, with a bull case of $3 million per coin and a bear case of $88,000.
While ambitious, the report shows that institutions are beginning to see Bitcoin as a structural asset class rather than a speculative one.
Drivers of Bitcoin price long-term growth
The report identifies three key forces behind Bitcoin’s trajectory. First is institutional adoption. Since the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in early 2024, inflows have accelerated, with institutions now accounting for more than 75% of trading volume.
Bitwise estimates that new demand is outpacing new supply by a factor of six. Corporate treasuries, pensions, and sovereign funds are beginning to allocate, signaling that Bitcoin is being integrated into the traditional financial system.
Second is the global search for inflation hedges. U.S. debt levels and the weakening purchasing power of fiat currencies are pushing investors toward hard assets. Bitwise notes that $10,000 held in U.S. dollars in 2015 has lost around 40% of its value. Bitcoin’s portability and finite supply position it as a modern counterpart to gold.
Finally, the report emphasizes Bitcoin’s fixed issuance schedule. With fewer than 1.1 million coins left to be mined and post-halving rewards reduced to about 450 BTC per day, scarcity continues to tighten. Chief investment officer Matt Hougan described inelastic supply as “the single most important force behind Bitcoin’s outlook.”
Risks and uncertainties
Bitwise does not dismiss risks. Regulatory shifts continue to be a major concern, especially if governments adjust laws pertaining to custody, taxes, or access to ETFs.
Adoption may also be slowed by macroeconomic shocks, which can include anything from technological competition to liquidity crunches. The company anticipates recurring 30–60% drawdowns even though volatility has decreased.
Still, Bitwise argues that the broader trajectory is clear. Bitcoin is moving from the edges of speculation into the core of global portfolios. If its forecast holds, the next decade will see Bitcoin competing directly with gold and U.S. Treasuries as a mainstream store of value.
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