Gemini is eyeing a regulated prediction markets as it awaits approval from U.S. derivatives regulators, marking its latest push to expand beyond crypto trading into event-based financial products.
Summary
- Gemini is preparing to launch regulated prediction markets pending CFTC approval.
- The move would place it in competition with Kalshi and Polymarket.
- Analysts see prediction markets as Gemini’s next growth driver post-IPO.
Crypto exchange Gemini is preparing to launch prediction market contracts, according to a Bloomberg report citing people familiar with the matter.
The move would position the Winklevoss-led firm alongside major players, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, both of which have seen rising activity ahead of the 2024 U.S. election season.
Gemini’s next big product push
Sources told Bloomberg that Gemini plans to introduce regulated prediction contracts once it receives approval for its derivatives exchange application, filed in May with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The proposed exchange, designated as a contract market, would allow users to trade event-based contracts on sports, politics, and economic outcomes. However, progress has slowed amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which may further delay new regulatory reviews.
If approved, Gemini’s entry would place it in direct competition with Kalshi, which already operates under a CFTC license, and Polymarket, which is working toward full U.S. reentry. Rival platforms like Robinhood have opted to partner with Kalshi instead of pursuing their own exchange approvals. Gemini has not provided an official comment on the report.
Expanding beyond crypto trading
The development follows Gemini’s September initial public offering, where it revealed plans to diversify into financial forecasting products to attract new retail and institutional users. Despite its stock trading roughly 40% below its debut price, analysts view prediction markets as a potential growth path.
Gemini’s move reflects a broader trend among financial firms racing to capture the fast-growing prediction market space. Coinbase, its top U.S. crypto rival, has also signaled plans to launch event contracts as part of its “Everything Exchange” strategy. Larger traditional players, including CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange, are also exploring similar offerings.
While timing remains uncertain, Gemini’s reputation for compliance, bolstered by its New York BitLicense, could help it gain early trust in a field still navigating regulatory ambiguity.
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