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gold turns bullish after last week’s weak NFP data

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Gold gave a strong buying move last week after weak NFP data, which weakened the dollar and strengthened the XXXUSD pairs. XAUUSD closed over $3360 on Friday, indicating that this ongoing week may also be a bullish continuation after some retracement.

The bias in gold for this week is buy with potential targets of $3440 and even a new ATH above $3500. With that in mind, let’s discuss the key pivot levels for gold buying and selling in this weekly forecast from August 4th to August 8th, 2025.

Key economic events of this week

Some significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week that are expected to impact XAUUSD.

Aug 5 – ISM Services PMI (Actual: 51.5 vs. Forecast: 50.8):

Growth in the service sector that is stronger than anticipated points to economic resilience, which strengthens the USD and puts short-term pressure on gold.

Aug 7 – Unemployment Claims (Actual: 221K vs. Forecast: 218K):

A slight softening of the job market is indicated by somewhat higher claims, which can boost gold by raising dovish Fed forecasts.

Gold HTF Overview

As discussed in the previous XAUUSD weekly forecast, the monthly timeframe is showing a move upwards towards external liquidity, and that is exactly what’s happening right now.

We can expect the move to continue towards $3440, and eventually towards a test of the previous ATH of $3500 as well.

XAUUSD weekly forecast: gold turns bullish after last week’s weak NFP data - 1 — XAUUSD 1M chart – Source: Tradingview

Gold forecast for August 4th to August 8th, 2025

The 4-hour chart in gold has a clear change of character towards the buy side. The strongest zone for buys is the breaker block, which starts from 3334 all the way to 3325. The 0.5 fib level also collides with this same zone, which makes it a stronger buy area for this week.

XAUUSD weekly forecast: gold turns bullish after last week’s weak NFP data - 2 — XAUUSD 4h chart – Source: Tradingview

For sells, the 1hr chart has a bearish OB; however, it should be noted that the trend has shifted to buys, and you can only look for scalp sells from the area of $3365-3373.

XAUUSD weekly forecast: gold turns bullish after last week’s weak NFP data - 3

XAUUSD 1h chart – Source: Tradingview

Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation

To conclude, gold can give both buys and sells this week; however, buys are strongly preferred over sells. Lower time frames are suggesting sells, while higher time frames are still favoring a buy position in gold.