On-chain data from CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin could be on the verge of a bullish trend reversal, as a key market signal begins to shift.
In an Apr. 13 post, CryptoQuant contributor Joao Wedson noted that the gap between Bitcoin’s (BTC) futures price and its spot price on Binance is starting to shrink. This gap, known as the perpetual-spot gap, shows the difference between what traders are paying in futures contracts versus the actual price of Bitcoin.
Given that the gap is currently negative, futures market participants may be exercising caution or taking profits following Bitcoin’s previous surge to almost $90,000. However, the narrowing gap may indicate that selling pressure is easing. In the past, Bitcoin’s price often experienced a significant increase when this gap turned positive. This occurred in 2020 and early in 2024.
Despite Bitcoin falling over 22% from its all-time high of $108,786 in January, on-chain accumulation signals remain strong. According to an Apr. 11 post on X by Glassnode, around 40,000 BTC has been purchased near the $79,000 level, while roughly 51,000 BTC was accumulated at around $82,080. If prices decline once more, these levels might serve as support.
Bitcoin is trading at about $84,746 as of press time, having recovered from a weekly low of $74,773. The cryptocurrency is up 7% in the last week. Recently, Bitcoin closed a daily candle above a long-term downtrend line, leading well-known market analyst Rekt Capital to speculate that a breakout might be imminent. They did, however, warn that a successful retest is required to confirm the trend change.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s dominance, which measures its share of the whole cryptocurrency market, sits at 63%, as per TradingView data. This indicates that a sizable amount of market capital is still allocated to Bitcoin, suggesting that investors are banking on its relative stability in volatile markets. If buyers continue to step in and the futures gap turns positive, analysts believe that Bitcoin might be poised for another rally.
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