On-chain data shows that more than 85% of holders are now sitting on profits, raising speculations of short-term profit-taking.
In an analysis published on Apr. 29 by CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost, the “supply in profit” metric, which tracks the percentage of Bitcoin (BTC) holders currently above their cost basis, has climbed back above 85%. This marks a strong recovery from a recent dip to 75%, a level often seen as a key support zone in past market cycles.
“Having a large portion of supply in profit is not a bad thing,” Darkfost wrote. “It tends to support bullish trends — until it reaches euphoric levels.” According to past data, when this metric crosses the 90% mark, markets often enter a euphoric phase followed by short- to mid-term corrections.
Bitcoin is consolidating between $94,000 and $95,000 as of the time of writing. Technical indicators provide mixed signals. At 66, the relative strength index is approaching overbought. Though indicators like the Stochastic RSI point to potential trend fatigue, momentum, and moving average convergence/divergence readings are still bullish.
If buyers regain their strength, a breakout above $98,000 might lead to Bitcoin retesting the $100,000 level. On the downside, a decline toward the $85,000–$87,000 range could be triggered by a break below $89,000.
Beyond the charts, institutional interest appears to be a major driver of the recent rally. According to data from SoSoValue, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $764 in net inflows over the past week. Corporate buyers are also stepping up. MicroStrategy recently purchased 15,355 BTC for $1.4 billion, increasing its total holdings to over 553,000 BTC.
More institutional demand is expected in the near future. Cantor Fitzgerald, SoftBank, Bitfinex, and Tether have announced plans to launch 21 Capital, a $3.6 billion Bitcoin investment venture. Bitcoin’s next move may depend on whether this wave of institutional demand can carry it through resistance amid fears of profit taking among retail holders.
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